Is Russia Plotting a War Front in Latin America?

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Published: 04 April 2022

Is Russia Plotting a War Front in Latin America?

The Cuban, Venezuelan, and Nicaraguan dictatorships are probably more concerned than Washington and Brussels over the Kremlin’s diatribes.

The Soviet Union’s understanding of doctrinal internationalism split the world into regional spheres of influence, but with a caveat. The popular adage of the Brezhnev Doctrine’s “what’s mine is mine and what’s yours is up for grabs” principle, was the cornerstone of Soviet foreign policy. It has been carried forward by the post-Soviet authoritarian regime of Vladimir Putin. Russia’s blatant disregard for Ukrainian sovereignty and the civilized order of political relations is evidence of this. Recent declarations by high-ranking American military leaders and State Department officials have issued stark security warnings. Could Russia be plotting a Latin American, Ukraine-like, war front?

During a Senate Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on March 31, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Public Diplomacy, Policy, Planning, and Coordination, Kerri Hannan, testified about Russia’s threat in the Western Hemisphere. “The commitment to democracy in the Hemisphere has never seemed so urgent,” Hannan stated and added that “while Russia tramples on Ukraine’s democracy and threatens to export the Ukrainian crisis to the Americas, expanding its military cooperation with Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela.” GOP Senator Marco Rubio (FL) concurred with the State Department official and said, “Russia is an acute problem, and it is a current challenge.”

 

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Hannan’s testimonial declaration is not an isolated assessment. General Laura J. Richardson, the commander of the U.S. Southern Command, raised similar concerns on March 8 over Russian collusion with Latin American socialist dictatorships. Before members of the House Armed Services Committee, Richardson said that “Threats in South America, include transnational criminal organization as well as the meddling of both China and Russia.” The four-star general highlighted to Congress that “Russia, a more immediate threat, is increasing its engagements in the hemisphere.”

Yury Borisov, the Kremlin’s deputy prime minister, said in January that he could “neither affirm nor exclude” whether Russia would send military assets to Cuba or Venezuela. It is worth noting that days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Borisov paid a visit to Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. Dictator Putin has developed a close relationship with the tyrannical troika of Miguel Díaz-Canel, Nicolás Maduro, and Daniel Ortega. Russian state news agencies have made no secret of this alliance. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an address to the State Duma (Russia’s figurative parliament) in January that “the three friendly countries agreed to consider ways to further deepen our strategic partnership in each and every field.”

Putin’s top diplomat simply stated an obvious fact. Except for an 8-year hiatus (1991-1999), Russia has maintained a tight bond with Latin American socialism. The former KGB officer, undoubtedly, revamped the post-totalitarian model from which he came. The mixture of a crony and state capitalist-driven economy, Putinism shares many key characteristics with the São Paulo Forum’s dictatorial prototype, that concocted scheme devised by the deceased Cuban tyrant, Fidel Castro, in reaction to the fall of Soviet communism.

The Soviet Union invested heavily in promoting communism in the Americas. Putin’s willingness to forgive $53 billion of Russian debt owed by the Castro-Communist dictatorship, reflects the understanding of a partnered relationship. Russia’s activism in Latin America, following in the USSR’s footsteps, is channeled through Castro’s Cuba. The Russian GPS satellite spy base on the outskirts of Managua, the expansive military hardware transfer to Venezuela, and the espionage experimentation that, most likely, resulted in the Havana Syndrome in Cuba, all predate the invasion of Ukraine.

Putin may be seeking to scare the U.S.; threats of bringing the Russo-Ukrainian War into America’s backyard could shed, however, surprising consequences for his regime, as well as Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. The people in those three captive nations could emulate the Ukrainians. A revolt is a possibility. If the Russian dictator arms and uses Cuban, Venezuelan, and Nicaraguan territory, they would be considered complicit war allies, like Belarus.

Such a scenario would prompt the West to extend sanctions against the three socialist regimes. Given the mixing of geography and national security, the U.S. and NATO would likely send war vessels to the Gulf of Mexico, the Florida Straits, and the Caribbean Sea. Putin has proved to be a bumbling war strategist. The Cuban, Venezuelan, and Nicaraguan dictatorships are probably more concerned than Washington and Brussels over the Kremlin’s diatribes. Ukraine may well be a key to freedom in Latin America.

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Published: 31 March 2022

Securing Free and Fair Elections: America’s Biggest Domestic Challenge

The U.S. Constitution was completely ignored in the 2020 election. We must ensure the same doesn’t happen in the upcoming elections.

The U.S. Republic is the world’s greatest consensual government experiment. America has earned this distinction by fostering a continuity of competitive elections, within a free society, under the auspices of the rule of law. As with all things that are human, imperfections, and irregularities have not been absent. The reason that election tampering has not caused systemic duress is that the electoral deformities of the past have not been institutionalized. Securing free and fair elections is America’s biggest domestic challenge.

The 2020 presidential election was not fair across the board. The process was tainted with irregularities. Dubious activities were carried out by influential actors. The concentration of these maleficent exercises was in key swing states. State courts, governors, and election commissions bypassed the Constitution and changed electoral laws. The Chinese communist-made pandemic was the premise for this constitutional violation. The result of this siege by executive and judicial authorities on the exclusive duty of state legislatures, was to comprehensively neutralize established hurdles to avoid voter fraud and cheating.

 

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Read more: Securing Free and Fair Elections: America’s Biggest Domestic Challenge

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Published: 27 March 2022

Why Ukraine Matters to Cuba

Ukraine matters and to freedom-loving Cubans, it is especially critical.

The Russian military’s death toll, after one month of fighting in Ukraine, tops the total Soviet loss count during its ten-year adventure in Afghanistan. This humiliating defeat for the Putin regime and epic victory for the Ukrainian armed forces and militias, presents a grave concern for Moscow and other corners of the dictatorial globe. The Castro regime is one of those who are losing sleep these days. There are many reasons why what is happening in Ukraine matters to Cuba.

Rebellion contagion

The 11th of July Cuban Popular Revolt (11J), that legendary Sunday where hundreds of thousands of Cubans spontaneously took to the streets in over sixty localities across the island demanding freedom and a regime-change, has horrified the communist dictatorship. 

The Castro regime’s barbaric crackdown, with its draconian, decades-long sentences for many of the peaceful protesters, bears witness of its need to amplify state terrorism to domesticate the population. Cubans, however, remain undeterred by the repression.      

Before the Russian invasion, few people gave the Ukrainians much of a chance against the world’s second most powerful military force. One month later, Russia’s exuberant forty thousand casualties (killed, wounded, taken prisoner, or missing), according to NATO, tells us many things. Yes, the Ukrainians fight well. The moral principle stamped by Abraham Lincoln in his famous 1860 NYC Cooper Union speech stating, “Let us have faith that right makes might, and in that faith, let us, to the end, dare to do our duty as we understand it,” is evidently being applied by this besieged nation. Cubans have also historically displayed this same uncompromised faith of embracing abnegation in exercising virtue. 11J destroyed Castro-Communism’s immutability myth.  

Elon Musk’s Starlink internet

Protests that emanated from 11J continued throughout Cuba for days. Pivotal to the Castro regime’s effort to quell the demonstrations, was cutting off the internet. Russian cyberattacks attempted the same feat in Ukraine upon invading it. Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, tweeted out for help to Elon Musk two days after Putin’s army forcefully entered Ukraine. “We ask you to provide Ukraine with Starlink stations and to address sane Russians to stand”, he tweeted. Within a few hours, Musk replied, “Starlink service is now active in Ukraine. More terminals en route.” Since then, it has been mostly smooth internet sailing for Ukrainians.

While control over Ukrainian territory was a favorable factor for Starlink’s success in Europe’s biggest country, the notion of thinking outside the box and putting technology to work for freedom in this fashion is encouraging. Ukraine is now an empirical case from which projects to launch internet support for the Cuban people can draw from. A precedent exists for the next 11J.

Sanctions

Sanctions against the Putin regime are full of holes. Nonetheless, those that have been already implemented are seriously hurting the Russian dictator’s ability to finance his war for an extended stretch of time. The idea of a palace revolution is becoming ever more feasible in Russia, the longer this genocidal quicksand protracts. The argument that “sanctions do not work”, has lost validity.

The U.S. has forged its relationship with Cuban communism premised on the principle of seeking to deprive the sixty-two-year-old dictatorship of resources to repress. Different American administrations have strengthened or weakened this approach. The fact remains, however, that despite the embargo’s loopholes and other inconsistencies with the sanctions, the Castro regime would love nothing more than a termination of financial penalties for its criminal behavior. The West is making sanctions against Russia, a moral crusade. This ethical notion can come hard on Havana’s Marxist clan at some point.

The loss of Putin’s banks

Several Russian banks have been ejected from the SWIFT system. Those para-state institutions, at the service of the Russian dictatorship, have established an entangling relationship with the Western Hemisphere’s socialist autocracies. They have served the purpose of evading U.S. sanctions by having Putin’s banks be the agents of transaction with European entities. It is highly probable that they have also been instruments of money laundering from drug trafficking, a lucrative business for continental socialism. As long as the Russo-Ukrainian War is going on and the sanctions on the Putin remain, Castroism has lost one of their premier dirty bankers.

Goodbye Russian tourists    

Russian tourism to Cuba increased about 200% since 2019. In 2021, Russians constituted 40% of the total number of tourists that visited the tropical gulag. That has all changed since Ukraine was invaded. The pale bodies of Russian citizens suntanning in Cuba’s beaches is now a mirage. This important source of revenue for the Cuban dictatorship has vanquished. Given the uncertainty in all of Europe now, visiting Cuba may be the last thing on European minds now.

The likelihood that Cubans in the island will again openly challenge the totalitarian regime in power is probable. The spirit of Ukrainians fighting against the odds, yet winning at every step, will surely send messages of hope and inspiration to Cubans. An internet system, that can bypass tyrannical rule, now has a success story. Sanctions as a moral and tactical weapon has been elevated and is today in the glamour. Losing crooked bankers will be costly. The Castro state capitalist tourist emporium is at a considerable loss with the absence of Russian visitors. Ukraine matters and to freedom-loving Cubans, it is especially critical. #FreeCubaStandsWithUkraine 

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Published: 24 March 2022

In Defense of a No-Fly Zone in Ukraine

Many have rushed to argue against a no-fly zone, but with the right military equipment from the U.S. and NATO, Ukraine could discourage Putin’s missiles and planes from flying over his country for war and genocide purposes.

As the free and sovereign nation of Ukraine battles the invading second most powerful army in the world, the West continues to evade its responsibility. Dictator Vladimir Putin has launched his captive nation into a war against the international democratic order. To believe that Russia’s imperial quest will stop at Ukraine’s borders is an exercise of supreme naivety. The West is in denial if it believes it is not currently under attack. Here are some reasons why implementing a no-fly zone of some sort over Ukraine makes sense.

Call it World War III or IV (if one counts the Cold War as a world war), the truth is that aggression from pillars of evil has been in a constant war against the free world. One example is communist China’s asymmetrical warfare since 1978. Another has been the installation of the Putin regime in 2000. It launched another front against free societies, a post-Soviet version. Authoritarian Russia took a mixed combat approach that has been, both, asymmetrical (cyber-attacks, espionage, economic, foreign interference) and traditional (Chechnya, Moldavia, Syria, Georgia, and Ukraine). The besieging of Ukraine, its heroic resistance, and the ensuing genocide have given the West a wake-up call. 

 

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Read more: In Defense of a No-Fly Zone in Ukraine