Cuba's False Democratic Transition: An Analysis of the Castro Regime
The Castro-communist regime in Cuba is characterised by a totalitarian grip on power, human rights abuses and repression of dissent. Recent protests on the island highlight the need for democratic reforms, but the regime appears to be orchestrating a false transition to democracy to maintain its control. This article examines the motives behind this façade, international responses and the challenges to real change in Cuba. It analyses the role of the opposition, the creation of a fake opposition loyal to the regime, and future prospects under the Castro dictatorship. It seeks to shed light on Cuba's political complexity and compare it to other dictatorial regimes, as well as to explore the difficulties of achieving genuine democratic change on the island.
1. Background to the Castro regime in Cuba
Economic policies and social control
The Castro regime in Cuba has long been known for its centralised socialist economic policies, which have led to a totally state-controlled economy and very limited opportunities for private businesses that do not agree with the dictatorship, favouring only those businesses linked to the regime or belonging to officials or relatives of the Castro elite. This centralised system has led to economic stagnation and dependence on foreign aid on which the regime has survived by parasitising from its ideological partners from the former USSR to Venezuela and other countries that have provided them with aid and credits that they have never repaid.
The Deceptive Transition to Military State Capitalism
The transition in Cuba to a kleptocracy is taking place fraudulently, with the creation of a fake civil society and a business class ideologically aligned with Castroism. The Castro regime seeks to perpetuate itself in power through the manipulation of terms and the implementation of supposed economic reforms that in reality seek to maintain control and wealth in the hands of a corrupt elite made up of a conglomerate of military officers aligned with Raúl Castro who act like a mafia and which Dr. Juan Antonio Blanco classifies as the mafia power of State Military Capitalism (a subject we will deal with in a future article).
The true meaning of civil society
Civil society in Cuba is not independent of political power, as the organisations recognised as such are controlled by the state. These organisations, such as the Central de Trabajadores de Cuba (CTC), the Federación de Mujeres Cubanas (FMC), Asociación Nacional de Agricultores Pequeños (ANAP), Organización de Pioneros José Martí (OPJM), Federación Estudiantil de la Enseñanza Media (FEEM), Federación Estudiantil Universitaria (FEU), Comités de Defensa de la Revolución (CDR) and a series of other entities that provide logistical support to the Castro-communist doctrine.
The Castro government has used various strategies, such as collaboration with foreign companies, the exploitation of slave labour and the sale of intelligence services, to obtain resources and stay in power. This prevents the existence of a true civil society in Cuba, where opposition sectors fight against a totalitarian regime. True civil society is that which is independent of political power and which is not controlled by public entities, something that does not happen in Cuba.
In Castro's Cuba there is NO CIVIL SOCIETY.
The deceptive economic measures
Raúl Castro implemented apparently liberal economic measures to deceive the United States and international public opinion in general, which resulted in the re-establishment of relations with the Obama administration. However, these actions did nothing to improve human rights or the situation of civil society on the island. Subsequently, Donald Trump's administration dismantled Obama's measures that economically oxygenated the dictatorship. Biden's arrival in power seemed to open a new stage in the relationship with Cuba, which has not matured as the regime had hoped, but Biden's recent negotiations and concessions to the dictatorship have raised concerns.
Human rights violations, crimes and repression of dissidents
Under the Castro regime, there have been numerous reports of human rights violations, crimes against humanity, as well as political repression, censorship and arbitrary arrests of dissidents. The government has maintained an iron grip on power by silencing any form of opposition or dissent, imprisoning and murdering its opponents, implementing a regime of terror that relentlessly persecutes dissidents or any peaceful demonstration against them, imprisoning them with excessive sentences or fabricating crimes against them to justify disproportionate sentences.
2. Signs of a false transition to democracy
The kleptocracy's mask of economic openness
The regime has legalised micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, using this initiative to mask state capitalism as economic openness and benefit the ruling elite. This strategy seeks to deceive the US and the West, perpetuating the power of the Cuban kleptocracy.
Rhetoric in the face of regime actions
Despite speculation about a possible democratic transition, the regime's actions suggest otherwise. Key institutions remain under the totalitarian government control of the Castro dictatorship, with no sign of genuine political reforms or opening of democratic space.
Manipulation of electoral processes
The dictatorial regime will manipulate electoral processes to maintain its grip on power while creating a façade of democracy. This involves restrictive eligibility criteria for candidates or limitations on political participation and even the fabrication of crimes against opposition leaders in order to imprison them and eliminate them from any mock elections.
3. Analysis of the regime's motives
Maintaining control and power dynamics
The regime's main motivation for a fake democratic transition is to retain control and power. By appearing to make concessions to democratic norms, the regime seeks to placate internal and external critics while maintaining its totalitarian control by creating a mirage of hope.
The strategy of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises under Castro's communism
Since the 1990s, the island's communist dictatorship has made overtures for conditional rapprochement with its northern neighbour, taking advantage of the political weakness of US administrations, the lax enforcement of the embargo against the Castro regime, and loopholes in the 1992 Cuban Democracy Act (known as the Torricelli Act) that have facilitated access to certain products from the United States. This marked the beginning of an aggressive public relations campaign by the Castro regime aimed at US producers, political actors and trade lobbyists that continues to this day.
It is not just a matter of bearing the staggering cost of state terror to keep Cubans in chains. An elite group at the top of the power structure has built an oligarchic empire by plundering Cuba's wealth. Most of their descendants have adopted citizenship and residency abroad to potentially evade justice in a free Cuba. In this sense, communism on the island has followed the familiar pattern of other former socialist countries.
Those in power talk like communists but live like capitalists.
International pressure and economic considerations
International pressure and economic considerations play an important role in the regime's strategy. By presenting the appearance of democratic reform, the regime seeks to mitigate international criticism and attract foreign investment and long-term loans to bolster its economic stability.
The Castro regime's response
The Castro regime has rightly perceived a constant challenge to its tyrannical rule. Both internally and externally, Cubans have never accepted Marxist-Leninist domination idly. This explains the Castro regime's preoccupation with implementing the Chinese or Vietnamese model (Leninist state with a hybrid economy) or the Russian Putinist model. It has resorted to economic modifications tactically aimed at making the US believe that it is a liberalised economy. Castroism's ultimate goal is to achieve the transfer of US wealth through taxpayer-subsidised import credits and a market for its state-capitalist operations. Moreover, the consolidation of a US-based commercial lobbying army that sells the Castro regime's interests is highly beneficial to Havana's survival plans.
4. International response and implications
Reactions of key global actors
The international community's response to the Castro regime's supposed transition to democracy will be crucial. Key global actors will need to carefully scrutinise the regime's actions and hold it accountable for any attempts to deceive or manipulate the democratic process. Although many governments of democratic countries collude with the Castro regime to gain economic advantages over others that are more demanding of Castro's human rights violations. Notably, countries such as Canada, Spain and Mexico have historically maintained trade relations with the dictatorship, regardless of the human rights violations and crimes committed by Castroism.
Potential impact on regional politics and stability
The implications of a false transition to democracy in Cuba could reverberate throughout the region, affecting regional politics and stability. Any manipulation of democratic norms could set a dangerous precedent for other totalitarian regimes seeking to maintain power by deceptive means, as has been the case in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Bolivia.
5. Challenges to genuine democratic transition
Structural barriers and entrenched interests
The transition from a totalitarian regime to a functioning democracy faces significant obstacles. These include:
- Institutional control: the ruling regime maintains tight control over key state institutions, such as the judiciary and the media.
- Economic interests: Powerful elites with close ties to the current regime have incentives to maintain the status quo.
- Bureaucratic resistance: Government officials may resist change for fear of losing their positions or privileges.
- Absolute rejection by the Castro military elite who oppose any change that affects their privileged position and fear sanctions if a transitional justice process is applied.
Concrete example: In Spain's post-Franco transition, the 1977 Amnesty Law was criticised for protecting officials of the previous regime from prosecution for human rights violations, illustrating how entrenched interests can complicate a full democratic transition.
Citizen engagement and political awareness
The success of a democratic transition depends to a large extent on the active participation and engagement of the citizenry. This involves:
- Civic education: programmes to inform citizens about their rights and responsibilities in a democracy.
- Encouraging participation: Creating spaces and mechanisms for citizen participation in decision-making.
- Development of a democratic culture: Promotion of values such as dialogue, tolerance and respect for divergent opinions.
6. Role of opposition movements and civil society
Challenges facing dissenting voices
Opposition movements and civil society in authoritarian and totalitarian regimes face numerous obstacles:
- State repression: arbitrary arrests, police violence and other forms of intimidation.
- Censorship: Control of the media and restrictions on access to information.
- Legal constraints: Restrictive laws that make it difficult for independent organisations to form and operate.
Concrete examples:
In Cuba, the San Isidro movement, composed of artists and activists, has faced arrests, surveillance and harassment by the authorities in response to their peaceful demands for freedom of expression and cultural rights. The regime is holding Luis Manuel Otero, who was sentenced to five years in prison, and Maykel Castillo, to nine years in prison, despite the fact that many international human rights organisations have recognised them as prisoners of conscience and have demanded their release.
The dictatorship keeps in prison Félix and Sayli Navarro, arrested on 12 July 2021, when they went together to the police station of Perico, in Matanzas, to inquire about members of the Pedro Luis Boitel Party for Democracy who, in different municipalities of Matanzas, had been arrested the day before.
The regime keeps in prison more than 1100 prisoners who demonstrated peacefully on July 11, including the most internationally visible Cuban political prisoner José Daniel Ferrer who is constantly kept in punishment and isolation cells without the required medical attention, despite international calls for his release, fearing the same fate as Oswaldo Payá Sardiñas, Harold Cepero, Orlando Zapata, Pedro Luis Boitel, Wilman Villar or Laura Pollán, among other brave Cubans, or the dissident Alexei Navalny, Russia's most prominent opposition leader.
Strategies to mobilise for change
To promote a democratic transition, opposition movements and civil society can employ a variety of strategies:
- Grassroots organising: Building community and solidarity networks.
- Using technology: Leveraging social media and digital platforms to disseminate information and organise.
- International alliances: Seek global support and visibility.
- Creative protests: Develop innovative and non-violent ways of expressing dissent.
7. Comparison with other regimes such as China, Russia, and Vietnam.
Lessons learned from similar transitions elsewhere.
Studying other regimes provides valuable lessons for understanding the challenges of democratic transition:
- Importance of institutions: Building strong democratic institutions is crucial to prevent authoritarian or totalitarian backsliding.
- Role of civil society: An active and resilient civil society is fundamental to sustaining pressure for change.
- Managing expectations: Democratic transitions are long and complex processes that require patience and persistence.
Concrete example: Poland's transition from communism to democracy in the 1980s demonstrates the importance of a unified opposition (Solidarity) and inclusive negotiations (1989 Round Table) to achieve a peaceful transition.
Common tactics used to prolong power in dictatorships
Authoritarian regimes employ a variety of strategies to maintain their control:
- Co-opting the opposition: selectively incorporating members of the opposition into the government to divide it.
- Creating a loyal opposition that responds to the interests of the dictatorship.
- Electoral manipulation: Conducting controlled elections to give the appearance of democratic legitimacy.
- Control of information: Limiting access to independent media and promoting state propaganda.
- Selective repression: using force against key dissidents while maintaining a façade of normality.
Analysis of the cases of Russia and China as possible patterns of Castro's transition:
Russia: Vladimir Putin's regime has consolidated its power through:
- Suppression of dissent: Assassinations of opposition figures such as Boris Nemtsov and the attempted poisoning of Alexei Navalny.
- Control of the media: Closure of independent media and promotion of state narratives.
- Constitutional amendments: Changes to the constitution to allow Putin to remain in power.
- Electoral interference: Manipulation of elections and elimination of opposition candidates.
China: The Chinese Communist Party maintains its control through:
- Mass censorship: The ‘Great Firewall’ that blocks access to outside information.
- Repression of minorities: Oppression of Uighurs in Xinjiang and restriction of freedoms in Hong Kong.
- Technological surveillance: Use of advanced technology to monitor and control the population.
- Nationalism: Promotion of national pride to justify authoritarian policies.
- Imprisonment of dissidents without medical care and killing of prisoners for organ harvesting.
Liu Xiaobo, sentenced to 11 years in prison, remained in Shenyang City Hospital. Although he asked to go abroad with his wife, Liu Xia, for treatment and was recognised by two foreign doctors, the Chinese authorities flatly refused on the grounds that this was an ‘internal matter’.
For the past 25 years, Falun Gong practitioners - estimated at the time to number 100 million in 1999 - have faced prolonged imprisonment, torture, forced labour and forced organ harvesting.
The 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre demonstrates the regime's willingness to use lethal force to maintain power, a fact that continues to influence Chinese politics today.
8. Future Prospects for Cuba under Castro's Dictatorship
Possible scenarios for stability or regime change
Cuba's future could develop in several directions:
- Totalitarian continuity: The regime could maintain its control through limited economic reforms and political repression.
- Gradual liberalisation: A gradual phoney economic and political opening, similar to the Vietnamese model.
- Regime collapse: An economic or political crisis could lead to an abrupt change of government.
- Negotiated transition: Deceptive dialogue between the dictatorship and the loyal opposition to achieve a peaceful transition favourable to the ruling elite.
- Military rebellion or coup d'état to form an interim government before proceeding to elections.
- A massive uprising larger than that of July 11 with international support could bring the dictatorship to the negotiating table.
- After the death of Raul Castro (who refuses to go anywhere near a ‘socialist market’ economy like China's), it will provoke a power struggle between the old-guard military and the new military that emerged after Castro's triumph.
The direction will depend on factors such as international pressure, the economic situation and the strength of internal opposition movements including the emergence of opponents within the regime's spheres and especially the military sectors.
9. Importance of transitional justice and the need to address past crimes
Transitional justice is crucial to prevent the return of authoritarian regimes and to build a solid democracy. The case of Nicaragua illustrates the consequences of not properly implementing these mechanisms:
- Daniel Ortega, initially part of the revolutionary government, managed to return to power in 2007 and established a new authoritarian regime.
To avoid similar scenarios, it is essential:
- Establish truth commissions to document past abuses.
- Identify and clarify crimes, and hold accountable the entities and individuals involved.
- Denazification and the importance of dismantling dictatorial institutions.
- Implement institutional reforms, especially in the judiciary and security forces.
- Create reparation programmes for victims of human rights violations.
- Promote national reconciliation without sacrificing justice.
In conclusion, the transition from an authoritarian regime to a functioning democracy is a complex process that requires attention to multiple factors. The Cuban case, like those of Russia and China, demonstrates the resistance of totalitarian systems to transition to real democracy. However, international experience underlines the importance of an active civil society, strong democratic institutions and transitional justice mechanisms to achieve and sustain genuine democratic change. Cuba's future will depend on how these challenges are addressed in the years to come.